Africa Energy Outlook 2019 – Analysis - IEA (2023)

World Energy Outlook special report

Country report — November 2019

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 – Analysis - IEA (1)

Africa Energy Outlook 2019
  • Abstract
  • Overview
  • Energy access
  • Africa Case
  • Renewables
  • Natural gas
  • Energy transitions

Cite report

IEA (2019), Africa Energy Outlook 2019, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2019

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About this report

Rapid economic and population growth in Africa, particularly in the continent’s burgeoning cities, will have profound implications for the energy sector, both regionally and globally. The stage is set for a new wave of dynamism among African policy makers and business communities, with falling costs of key renewable technologies opening up new avenues for innovation and growth. Chief among the challenges is providing universal access to reliable, modern, affordable and sustainable energy.

How to do this is a crucial component of Africa’s Agenda 2063 strategic framework for the continent’s future and of global Sustainable Development Goals. Realising the potential of the continent’s natural gas and mineral resources presents another key challenge. Five years after the World Energy Outlook’s first special report on Africa, the International Energy Agency has updated and expanded its outlook for the continent based on in-depth, data-rich and country-specific analysis. This new report provides important policy insights to help African energy stakeholders achieve the continent’s growth ambitions in a sustainable and inclusive manner. It also explores how the rise of consumerism in Africa might affect global trends.

(Video) Webinar: Africa Energy Outlook 2019

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This is an extract, full report available as PDF download

Overview

Africa’s population is among the fastest growing and youngest in the world. One-in-two people added to the world population between today and 2040 are set to be African, and the continent becomes the world’s most populous region by 2023, overtaking China and India.

More than half a billion people are added to Africa’s urban population by 2040, much higher than the growth seen in China’s urban population in the two decades of China’s economic and energy boom. How Africa meets its growing energy needs is crucial for the continent’s economic and energy future, as well as for global trends.

Growing urban populations mean rapid growth in energy demand for industrial production, cooling and mobility. With the growing appetite for modern and efficient energy sources, Africa also emerges as a major force in global oil and gas markets. The projected growth in oil demand is higher than that of China and second only to that of India as the size of the car fleet more than doubles (the bulk of which have low fuel efficiency) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is increasingly used for clean cooking. Africa’s growing weight is also felt in natural gas markets as the continent becomes the third-largest source of global gas demand growth over the same period.

Total population by region, China, Africa, India, 2018 and growth to 2040

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Oil demand in selected countries and regions, 2018-2040

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Renewables generation in selected countries and regions, 2018-2040

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Natural gas demand in selected countries and regions, 2018-2040

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Energy access

A critical task for policy makers is to address the persistent lack of access to electricity and clean cooking, and the unreliability of electricity supply, which have acted as brakes on the continent’s development. Today some 600 million people do not have access to electricity and around 900 million people lack access to clean cooking. Nonetheless, the momentum behind today’s policy and investment plans is not yet enough to meet the energy needs of Africa’s population in full.

Despite progress in several countries (e.g. Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Senegal, Rwanda), current and planned efforts to provide access to modern energy services barely outpace population growth. In 2030, 530 million people still lack access to electricity and nearly one billion people lack access to clean cooking. As a result, the global population without access to energy becomes increasingly concentrated with 90% without access to electricity and almost 50% without access to clean cooking in 2040 living on the African continent.

Number of people without access to clean cooking in sub-Saharan Africa in the STEPS

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Number of people without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa in the STEPS

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(Video) EIA's International Energy Outlook 2019

Africa Case

The Africa Case outlines a way to lift these constraints. It is also built on the premise of “Agenda 2063”, the continent’s own vision of accelerated economic and industrial development, which was established by the Heads of State and Governments of the African Union in 2015 and is incorporated in the national planning framework of over 30 countries. In this case, faster economic expansion is accompanied by the full achievement of access to electricity and clean cooking, in line with Sustainable Development Goal 7.

In the case of electricity, this would require tripling the average number of people gaining access every year from around 20million today to over 60 million people. Grid extension and densification is the least cost option for nearly 45% of the population gaining access by 2030, mini-grids for 30% and stand-alone systems for around a quarter. LPG is used by more than half of those gaining access to clean cooking in urban areas across sub-Saharan Africa, while improved cookstoves are the preferred solution in rural areas. Electrification, biogas, ethanol and other solutions also play important roles.

Clean cooking fuels and technologies in 2030

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Solutions to provide full access to electricity by 2030

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In the Africa Case, although the size of the economy in 2040 is four-times larger than today, total primary energy demand is only 50% higher - energy use in this case is actually lower than in the Stated Policies Scenario even though economic growth is significantly stronger.

The reasons are linked not only to the accelerated move away from solid biomass but also strengthened policies for energy efficiency: these include fuel economy standards for cars and two/three-wheelers, more efficient industrial processes, building codes and efficiency standards for appliances and cooling systems.

GDP in Africa per scenario, 2018-2040

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Total primary energy demand in Africa by scenario, 2018-2040

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Renewables

Electricity demand in Africa today is 700 terawatt-hours (TWh), with the North African economies and South Africa accounting for over 70% of the total. Yet it is the other sub-Saharan Africa countries that see the fastest growth to 2040. Electricity demand more than doubles in the Stated Policies Scenario to over 1 600 TWh in 2040, and reaches 2 300 TWh in the Africa Case, with most of the additional demand stemming from productive uses and emerging middle- and higher-income households.

Electricity demand in Africa by scenario, 2018-2040

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Renewables play a leading role in meeting this demand. To date, the continent with the richest solar resources in the world has installed only 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, less than 1% of the global total. However, Africa’s vast renewables resources and falling technology costs drive double-digit growth in deployment of utility-scale and distributed solar photovoltaics (PV), and other renewables, across the continent.

(Video) World Energy Outlook 2019 - Press Conference

Electricity generation in Africa by scenario, 2018-2040

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In the Africa Case, solar PV deployment averages almost 15 GW a year, reaching 320 GW in 2040, overtaking hydropower and natural gas to become the largest electricity source in Africa in terms of installed capacity. Wind also expands rapidly in several countries that benefit from high quality wind resources, most notably Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa while Kenya is also at the forefront of geothermal deployment.

The Africa Case requires building a more reliable power system and greater focus on transmission and distribution assets. A key priority is targeted investment and maintenance to reduce power outages, a major obstacle to enterprise, and to decrease losses from 16% today to a level approaching advanced economies (less than 10%). There is also a need to build up the regulation and capacity to support Africa’s power pools and strengthen regional electricity markets.

Africa needs a significant scale-up in electricity sector investment in generation and grids, for which it currently ranks among the lowest in the world. Despite being home to 17% of the world’s population, Africa currently accounts for just 4% of global power supply investment. Achieving reliable electricity supply for all would require an almost fourfold increase, to around $120 billion a year through 2040. Mobilising this level of investment is a significant undertaking, but can be done if policy and regulatory measures are put in place to improve the financial and operational efficiency of utilities and to facilitate a more effective use of public funds to catalyse private capital. Nurturing Africa’s own financial sector is also critical to ensure a sustained flow of long-term financing to energy projects.

Natural gas

In North Africa, gas already meets around half of the region’s energy needs, but in sub-Saharan Africa, it has thus far been a niche fuel. The share of gas in the energy mix is around 5%, the lowest in the world. The future could be different. There have been a series of major discoveries in recent years, in Egypt, East Africa (Mozambique and Tanzania), West Africa (Senegal and Mauritania) and South Africa, which collectively accounted for over 40% of global gas discoveries between 2011 and 2018. These developments could fit well with Africa’s push for industrial growth and its need for reliable electricity supply (constraining the expansion of more polluting fossil fuels). Much will depend on the price at which gas becomes available, the development of distribution networks (including small-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) distribution), the financing available for infrastructure and the strength of policy efforts to displace polluting fuels.

In our projections, Africa becomes a major player in natural gas as a producer, consumer and exporter. Gas demand in Africa doubles to 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario. The growth in production is considerably higher than the rise in demand, and Africa – led by Mozambique and Egypt – emerges as a major supplier of LNG to global markets.

Share of Africa in global gas demand, production (2018) and new discoveries (2011-2018)

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Energy transitions

Africa has abundant natural resources and the associated revenues could be an important motor for development. However, changing global energy dynamics mean that resource-holders cannot assume that their oil resources will translate into reliable future revenues. This year’s outlook incorporates higher US shale oil production, which is providing very strong competition for lighter African crudes. Accelerated energy transitions could result in lower global demand and prices and cut sharply into future revenues. Our analysis underscores the need for strategic thinking on future investments, transparent resource revenue management and efforts to reform and diversify economies.

Africa is also home to many of the mineral resources that are critical in driving global energy transitions. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for two-thirds of global cobalt production and South Africa produces 70% of the world’s platinum. Rising demand for the minerals that can support global energy transitions offers an opportunity for minerals-rich countries in Africa, but failure to keep up with demand could not only hamper Africa’s economic outcomes but also hold back the pace of global energy transitions. Responsible stewardship of these resources is vital. Robust regulatory and oversight mechanisms would be needed to ensure that revenues produce visible positive results for local communities and that negative impacts on the environment are minimised.

Net income from oil and gas production in top-ten producers in Africa, 2000-2040

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Africa has been a minor contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To date, energy-related CO₂ emissions in Africa represented around 2% of cumulative global emissions. Although Africa experiences rapid economic growth, its contribution to global cumulative CO₂ emissions increases to just 3% by 2040 in the Stated Policies Scenario. Higher economic growth in the Africa Case does not result in more GHG emissions as the increase in CO₂ emissions is offset by reductions in other GHGs (methane and nitrous oxide) linked to the inefficient combustion of biomass for cooking.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 – Analysis - IEA (2)

Residential cooling demand in Africa by scenario, 2018-2040

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(Video) Africa Energy Outlook: So…where are we?

But Africa is in the front line when it comes to the effects of a changing climate on the energy sector. Today, Africa has some of the lowest ownership levels of cooling devices of any region, despite almost 700 million people living in areas where the average daily temperature exceeds 25 degrees. By 2040, this number approaches 1.2 billion as population expands and average temperatures increase with climate change. Without appropriate regulations on the type of equipment used for cooling, this would create a very strong increase in electricity demand. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods is set to lead to more variability in generation output, notably from hydropower. Planning and investment decisions for energy infrastructure need to be climate resilient.

Share of Africa in cumulative global energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario, 1890-2040

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Share of Africa in cumulative global energy-related CO2 emissions in the STEPS, 1890-2040

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Thanks to resource endowments and technology improvements, Africa has the opportunity to pursue a much less carbon-intensive model of development than seen in many other parts of the world. The challenges and opportunities differ widely across a diverse continent. But renewables, together with natural gas in many areas, are poised to lead Africa’s energy consumption growth as the continent moves away from the traditional use of biomass that currently accounts for almost half of final energy consumption. With the appropriate policies to support a strong expansion of clean technologies and sufficient emphasis on energy efficiency improvements, Africa could be the first continent to achieve a significant level of economic and industrial growth with cleaner energy sources playing a prominent role than other economies in the past.

Changes in primary energy demand by fuel in selected regions, 1990-2040

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Country profiles

Article Nigeria Energy Outlook 8 November 2019
Article Senegal Energy Outlook 22 November 2019
Article Kenya Energy Outlook 22 November 2019
Article Democratic Republic of the Congo Energy Outlook 22 November 2019
Article Tanzania Energy Outlook 22 November 2019
Article South Africa Energy Outlook 8 November 2019
Article Ethiopia Energy Outlook 8 November 2019
(Video) IEA Africa University - World Energy Outlook 2020 and implications for Africa
Article Mozambique Energy Outlook 22 November 2019
Article Cote d'Ivoire Energy Outlook 22 November 2019
Article Angola Energy Outlook 22 November 2019

FAQs

Do you think African countries can meet 100% of their energy from renewables by 2050? ›

The energy sector in sub-Saharan Africa can become 100% renewable by 2050, leading to lower energy costs, better health and environment and the number of direct energy jobs in Africa increasing from 1,2 to more than 5 million in 2050.

What is the main source of energy in Africa? ›

Natural gas generated around 334 terawatt hours of electrical energy, while coal was the source for nearly 260 terawatt hours.
...
Electricity generation in Africa as of 2019, by source (in terawatt hours)
CharacteristicElectricity generation in terawatt hours
--
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1 Aug 2022

How much power does Africa need? ›

Total primary energy demand in Africa by scenario, 2018-2040

Electricity demand in Africa today is 700 terawatt-hours (TWh), with the North African economies and South Africa accounting for over 70% of the total.

Why does Africa have low energy consumption? ›

Low levels of modern renewable energy production and use in Africa can be attributed to low average income levels, unfavorable market conditions, and inadequate technical ability to harness renewable energy.

What are the biggest obstacles to a green energy transition in Africa? ›

Africa's energy transition rather faces two important challenges: modernisation and expansion.

Which country produces the most electricity in Africa? ›

South Africa: 84.4% Access

South Africa currently generates most of its electricity from coal, with the country's national access to electricity rate standing at 84.4% – 75.3% for rural areas and 88.8% in urban areas.

What percentage of Africa has no electricity? ›

In rural areas, the situation was even worse: over 70 percent of the population lacked access to electricity.
...
Population without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2021 (in millions)
CharacteristicNumber of people in millions
2019571
2018572
2017572
2016584
9 more rows

What is Frzss? ›

FRZSS Token One of the strongest digital currencies in the field of solar energy with more projects under development. Roadmap. Auditions. We have been reviewed and approved by the most important crypto security groups.

What is the role of nersa? ›

NERSA's functions include issuing licences, setting and approving tariffs and charges, mediating disputes, gathering information pertaining to gas and petroleum pipelines, and promoting the optimal use of gas resources.

What is the future of energy in Africa? ›

At the same time, Africa has the potential to play a leading role as the world's energy systems transition to a net zero future. The continent's geographic diversity holds huge potential for solar and wind power, and its soils are home to many of the minerals and rare earths needed for clean energy technologies.

How many years has total energy been present in Africa? ›

Africa is at the heart of TotalEnergies' global strategy. The Company has been present on the continent for over 90 years and today has activities in 43 countries and almost 13 000 employees.

Which other African country uses coal extensively as a source of energy? ›

Like South Africa — where around 90% of energy comes from coal — other African countries have embarked on mining this raw material.

How many targets and indicators does SDG 7 have? ›

The UN has defined 5 Targets and 6 Indicators for SDG 7. Targets specify the goals and Indicators represent the metrics by which the world aims to track whether these Targets are achieved.

Is the 7th SDG? ›

Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) calls for “affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all” by 2030. It's three core targets are the foundation for our work: Ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services.

How much of Africa's energy is renewable? ›

In 2020, 9% of all energy generated in Africa came from renewable sources, reports Statista. North Africa is the current leader on the continent in terms of renewable energy capacity.

Can a country run on 100% renewable energy? ›

Running On 100% Renewable Energy

Well, According to many researchers a world powered entirely by renewables such as wind, solar, hydro etc., is not unreasonable at all. In fact, they predict that we can achieve this by 2050.

How many countries could run entirely on wind solar and water power by 2050? ›

According to a roadmap created by scientists, by 2050, nearly 140 countries could run on energy created solely from wind, solar and water power. They represent more than 70% of the world's countries.

Which country has vowed to use 100% renewable energy 2015? ›

Iceland is a country running on 100% renewable energy. It gets 75% of the electricity from hydropower, and 25% from geothermal. The country then takes advantage of its volcanic activity to access geothermal energy, with 87% of its hot water and heating coming from this source.

Which country has most renewables? ›

Leading countries in installed renewable energy capacity worldwide in 2021 (in gigawatts)
CharacteristicCapacity in gigawatts
China1,020
U.S.325
Brazil160
India147
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Videos

1. Arnaud Rouget and Kieran McNamara: Africa Energy Outlook
(K4D)
2. 14.00-15.00 World Energy Outlook 2019 - in-depth presentation
(We Don't Have Time)
3. IEA Africa University - World Energy Outlook 2021
(International Energy Agency)
4. Africa Ministerial Roundtable: Covid-19's Impact on Africa’s Energy Sector
(International Energy Agency)
5. Webinar: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019
(International Energy Agency)
6. World Energy Outlook 2019 - Launch Press Conference
(International Energy Agency)
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